Sabalenka overcomes Rakhimova at US Open, eyes historic three-peat

Aryna Sabalenka, the No. 1 seed and defending champion, advanced to the fourth round of the US Open with a 6-3, 6-4 victory over Kamilla Rakhimova. The match was played on Arthur Ashe Stadium, where Sabalenka dominated the first set but faced fierce resistance from the Russian in a second set that lasted 54 minutes – longer than her entire previous match. Sabalenka, 26, is aiming for a third consecutive US Open title, a feat only achieved by Serena Williams in the Open Era (2026-2026). Speaking after the match, she said: “Rakhimova played really well, especially in the second set. She made me work very hard. I’m happy with how I handled the challenge.” Tactical analysis: Sabalenka, an aggressive baseliner, used her powerful serve to control the first set. However, in the second set, Rakhimova adjusted her return position, forcing Sabalenka to play more rallies and make more errors. Although no detailed statistics (first-serve percentage, winners, unforced errors) were provided in the original article, the extended set duration suggests Sabalenka’s dominance waned. This is a signal to watch: if her first-serve percentage drops below 55% in later rounds, she becomes more vulnerable against stronger opponents. From a data and form perspective, Sabalenka is at her peak as defending champion and top seed. However, points-defense pressure is immense: she must defend 2,000 points from last year’s title. An early exit could drop her ranking significantly. Currently, no injury concerns are reported, and her fitness appears solid. Tournament context: The US Open is the final Grand Slam of the year, with a total prize pool exceeding $60 million. The schedule is reasonable (one match per day), allowing recovery. Sabalenka is in the bottom half of the draw, avoiding top seeds until later rounds. Her potential round-of-16 opponent is Diana Shnaider (No. 15 seed) or Taylor Townsend – tough but not top-tier threats. A notable side story is the return of the Williams sisters in women’s doubles. Venus and Serena Williams will play on Friday night, drawing significant media attention. Though past their prime, their appearance brings nostalgia and could boost ticket sales and TV ratings. Sorana Cirstea, the No. 16 seed, upset Jasmine Paolini (No. 19 seed) 6-2, 6-1. Cirstea, 36, is contemplating retirement after this season. The win shows she can still compete at a high level, but retirement thoughts may affect her focus in later rounds. Risk analysis: Sabalenka’s biggest risk is points-defense pressure. She needs to go deep to maintain her No. 1 ranking. A lower risk is fatigue from the long second set, but with rest days, this can be managed. For the Williams sisters, injury risk due to age and lack of match play exists but is not yet evident. Media narrative and expectations: The main storyline is Sabalenka’s three-peat bid, compared to Serena Williams’ era. The Williams sisters’ return creates a nostalgic wave, but expectations should be managed as they only play doubles. Cirstea could become a focal point if she keeps winning and mentions retirement in interviews. Conclusion: Sabalenka passed the third round convincingly, but signs from the second set suggest she needs to improve consistency. With a favorable draw and manageable next opponent, she can go deep. However, points-defense pressure and historic expectations will be major mental challenges. Signals to monitor include Sabalenka’s first-serve percentage, the Williams sisters’ movement, and Cirstea’s post-match comments about her future.